Bitcoin Is Macro, but Not ‘Correlated’ in the Way You Think

Bitcoin is a macro asset in that it is now part of the global market. But not all macro assets are highly correlated. As fear subsides (which it will, one day), given the distinct value propositions of equities and crypto, we are likely to see correlations head back to lower levels, supporting the narrative of an “alternative” macro asset. Even before then, as the dust settles on the recent crypto crashes, as the outlook for global equities continues to get worse and as the risk of holding dollars shifts higher, we could see investors calibrate the relative downsides of asset groups. The resulting flows of funds are likely to change correlations and narratives, driving a new momentum that impacts correlations even further.